Frequently Asked Questions
How are NBA playoff odds calculated?
DunkChaser simulates the rest of the regular season 100,000 times. Every unplayed game is decided by a win probability from each team's Elo rating (with a home-court edge). At the end of each simulated season the 15 teams in each conference are ordered with the official NBA tiebreaking procedure, ranks 7-10 play the Play-In Tournament, and the whole best-of-seven bracket is played out. A team's playoff odds are simply the share of simulated seasons in which it ended up in the 16-team playoff field.
What is the difference between "Playoffs", "Top 6" and "Play-In"?
Top 6 is the chance of finishing first through sixth in the conference and going straight to the playoffs. Play-In is the chance of finishing seventh through tenth and having to win one or two single games to get in. Playoffs is the chance of actually being one of the sixteen teams in the first round — the top six plus whoever survives the play-in. So Playoffs is always at least Top 6, and the gap between them is exactly the play-in.
The season has not started. Why are there already percentages?
Before opening night every number is a preseason projection: last season's final rating, regressed halfway toward the league average, played through the published schedule. No results have been fabricated — the site says so at the top, shows no standings or seeds, and shows no clinch or elimination flags until real games are in the books. Percentages that far from a game are wide by nature; the model carries an explicit uncertainty about every team's strength so it does not pretend otherwise.
How is the play-in modelled?
Exactly as the league runs it, in every simulated season: the 7th seed hosts the 8th and the winner is the 7 seed; the 9th hosts the 10th and the loser is out; the 7/8 loser hosts the 9/10 winner for the 8 seed. Each game uses the same Elo win probability as a regular-season game, home court included.
Do you handle the NBA tiebreakers?
Yes. Every simulated season carries a full head-to-head record matrix, so ties are broken the way the league does it: head-to-head, division winner, division record, conference record, record against playoff-eligible teams in each conference, then point differential for today's real standings. Fed the complete 2025-26 season, the code reproduced the published order of all 30 teams — including the four real ties that season. See the methodology for exactly what is and is not implemented.
Why is the bracket not "reseeded" after the first round?
Because the NBA does not reseed. The 1/8 winner always plays the 4/5 winner and the 2/7 winner plays the 3/6 winner. The simulation uses that fixed bracket, with home court to the higher seed in every series and, in the Finals, to the team with the better regular-season record.
Some teams show only 80 scheduled games. Why?
Two of every team's 82 games depend on the NBA Cup: the knockout games count in the standings, and teams that do not reach the knockout round get two games added to their schedule in December. Until the league sets them, ESPN lists them as "TBD" and DunkChaser excludes them rather than inventing opponents. Projected records say how many games they cover.
What does the Elo rating mean?
A single number for team strength. Each team starts the season at last season's final rating regressed halfway toward the average, then moves after every game — up for a win, down for a loss, by more when the result was a surprise. The K-factor (24), home-court bonus (+40 Elo) and regression were tuned jointly and out of sample on every game from 2017-18 to 2025-26, and the simulation treats each rating as an estimate with a measured uncertainty (80 Elo) rather than a known fact. There is no margin-of-victory, rest or injury adjustment. Details on the methodology page.
What are the game scenarios and the Butterfly Effect?
"If [Team] wins" percentages are read straight from the same 100,000 seasons: the playoff odds of every team, restricted to the simulations where that game went a certain way. The Butterfly Effect stacks those shifts as you pick winners for tonight's slate.
When does a team show as clinched or eliminated?
Only when it is mathematically certain from win totals — "x" when a top-six finish is locked, "pi" when at least a play-in spot is locked, "e" when the top ten is out of reach — or when the league's own standings flag it. A 99.9% simulation result is not a clinch and is never shown as one. Magic numbers are not shown: with a play-in and a seven-step tiebreaker they are not well defined.
How often is the data updated?
Every game day during the season. Each update re-runs the full 100,000-season pool and locks a snapshot once a day's games are all final, so the Odds Movement chart grows one point per game day.
Is this for betting?
No. DunkChaser is a hobby project for entertainment and informational purposes only. The odds are model output, not betting lines. Not affiliated with the NBA.